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Title: Successive pandemic waves with different virulent strains and the effects of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2.
Authors: Silva, Alcides Castro e
Bernardes, Américo Tristão
Barbosa, Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves
Chagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das
Dáttilo, Wesley
Reis, Alexandre Barbosa
Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes
Keywords: COVID-19
Issue Date: 2022
Citation: SILVA, A. C. e. et al. Successive pandemic waves with different virulent strains and the effects of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccines, v. 10, 2022. Disponível em: <>. Acesso em: 11 out. 2022.
Abstract: One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.
ISSN: 2076-393X
metadata.dc.rights.license: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// 4.0/. Fonte: o PDF do artigo.
Appears in Collections:DEACL - Artigos publicados em periódicos

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