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Title: Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained : traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.
Authors: Ribeiro, Sérvio Pontes
Cruz, Wesley Francisco Dáttilo da
Barbosa, David Soeiro
Vital, Wendel Coura
Chagas, Igor Aparecido Santana das
Silva, Alcides Volpato Carneiro de Castro e
Morais, Maria Helena Franco
Góes Neto, Aristóteles
Azevedo, Vasco Ariston de Carvalho
Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson Afonso
Reis, Alexandre Barbosa
Keywords: Virus dissemination
Emergent diseases
Air transportation
Issue Date: 2020
Citation: RIBEIRO, S. P. et al. Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias, v. 92, n. 4, artigo e20201139, 2020. Disponível em: <>. Acesso em: 12 maio 2021.
Abstract: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.
ISSN: 1678-2690
metadata.dc.rights.license: Os trabalhos publicados no periódico Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, exceto onde identificado, está sob uma licença Creative Commons que permite copiar, distribuir e transmitir o trabalho, desde que sejam citados o autor e o licenciante. Fonte: Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências <>. Acesso em: 23 jan. 2020.
Appears in Collections:DEBIO - Artigos publicados em periódicos

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