Potential distribution of Nysius simulans (Hemiptera : Lygaeidae) in soybean crops in South America under current and future climate.
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2020
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Nysius simulans (Stål) is a suctorial, fluid feeding herbivore that can transmit toxins and spread pathogens via
saliva and is an economically important pest for soybean in South America. Currently, N. simulans in soybean
is predominantly found in Argentina, but future changes in the distribution from both dispersal and range shifts
due to climate change may affect soybean cultivation in southern South America. We developed a species dis-
tribution model to examine the distribution range of N. simulans. We compared the potential distribution of
N. simulans under current and future projected climatic conditions in order to identify future areas of natural
occurrence with ecological niche models using Maxent. Current records of N. simulans show that while the
species is present in Argentina, and some areas of Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, our models suggest
that many new suitable areas will be available for N. simulans under climate change including other regions
of Argentina, and southern Chile. Our results also predict potential future range shifts and distributions into
Bolivia, but not Peru nor Brazil. In our model, seasonal trends in temperature were shown to have the greatest
contribution to the potential distribution, whereas isothermality (i.e., temperature variability) was correlated
to potential future distribution ranges. We conclude that current populations of N. simulans may be expanding
its distribution range by diffusion (i.e., range expansion over generations at the margins of populations), and
regions with potential future N. simulans distribution should be closely monitored.
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Maxent, Neotropics, Biogeography, Species distribution modeling - SDM
Citação
PAULA, A. S. de; BARRETO, C. Potential distribution of Nysius simulans (Hemiptera: Lygaeidae) in soybean crops in South America under current and future climate. Journal of Economic Entomology, v. 113, n. 4, 2020. Disponível em: <https://academic.oup.com/jee/article/113/4/1702/5836909?login=false>. Acesso em: 29 abr. 2022.